Guidance Analysis
Looking at current guidance from this AM it looks like a major snowstorm is a strong potential. Looking at teleconnection guidance, the pattern strongly supports a coastal low.
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| Notice how the PNA is positive. This is part of a nice setup for an East Coast coastal storm. |
Not only is the PNA positive but the AO and NAO are going negative as shown in the pictures below.
With this type of pattern shaping up it is ripe for a major East Coast snowstorm. Earlier in the week models were not as consistent with showing this snowstorm, however by Thursday the models started to come into agreement. There is still a lot of time for things to update however there is a strong possibility that those who live in Southern New England could get affected by a blizzard as strong as the one that affected us in the beginning of Feb. Below are some models that show the storm. We will also look at how the GFS has significantly changed over the past day from Yesterday at 12Z to today at 00Z.
This is the model image from Thursday's 12Z model. Notice how the storm is well off the coast of the Carolinas. Not affecting anyone from the Mid-Atlantic Northward.
This is the model image from Friday's (Today's) 00Z model. Notice how the low pressure is much farther North, giving the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England a sizeable snowstorm.
Here is the 12Z Canadian Model. This clearly shows a storm coming up the coast ready to affect Southern New England.
This is the 00Z ECMWF. Shows extremely heavy snow overspreading the Northern parts of the Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England.
Finally, here is the 00Z ECMWF ensembles. This shows a very large storm with extremely heavy winds and snow affecting NJ through Southern NH. If you look closely this shows a well defined eye in the center of the storm.
My thoughts and Summary
Overall, this storm a a big potential. Especially since the pattern is so favorable for coastal development. The question is if an area of High Pressure of slight trough off the North Coast of ME moves out in time for the storm. As you can clearly see, guidance this morning is supporting the potential of the this moving East away from the New England coastline. Therefore, allowing the storm to move up the coast. However, the energy is still not even anywhere near close to coming on shore to the North American continent. The energy is still out in the Pacific, so declaring a solution at this point it very immature and sensless. However, I can say this, if this storm does come up the coast would not be surprised that this storm is as strong if not stronger than the Feb. Blizzard. This situation needs to be carefully watched as this could have significant impacts on the Northeast mid-week next week. Stay tuned for updates. As we get closer to the event confidence will increase.
